Canadian stocks hit a new all-time high despite tariff threats and a weakening economy.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.3% to climb above the key psychological threshold of 30,000 for the first time on Tuesday. The gauge has posted 45 closing records this year, the most since the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021. The rally is being driven by stronger than expected earnings, a flight to shelter in gold names and easing in borrowing costs. And a fresh round of Bank of Canada interest-rate cuts is expected to stoke gains.

“It’s a big milestone obviously because it’s a nice round number,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IGM Wealth Management, a firm with $143 billion in assets under management. He added the strength of the benchmark’s performance this year and the milestone would “drive investors to take another look at the TSX.”

The Toronto Stock Exchange is on track to outperform the S&P 500 Index this year for the first time in an up year for both markets since 2016. During that period the TSX suffered a smaller loss than the S&P 500 during the downturn of 2022.

Corporate earnings in Canada have, so far, beat expectations this year at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has slapped the country with tariffs and when unemployment has trended higher. Amid economic weakening and trade uncertainty, earnings by TSX stocks came in 7.5% ahead of expectations and marked a new high, according to Hugo Ste-Marie, director of portfolio and quantitative strategy at Scotiabank.

“If we had to describe it in one word, we would say: wow!” Ste-Marie wrote in a Sept. 15 note.

Gold miners have been the biggest driver of the TSX rally this year as bullion prices have hit all-time highs and demand for safe haven assets amid geopolitical, trade and interest-rate uncertainty intensify.

According to Fiera Capital Corp. portfolio manager Candice Bangsund, gold represents nearly 12% of the TSX.

The benchmark’s leading sector, materials, has gained 72% this year on the the back of triple-digit gains from the likes of Discovery Silver Corp., SSR Mining Inc. and Lundin Gold Inc.

More support ahead

Bangsund, who said the Canadian equity markets is more attractively valued than its global peers, sees the materials sectors continuing to prop up the Toronto Stock Exchange through 2026.

“Even if there’s decreased demand for oil products or materials products from the U.S. from Canada, if a product like gold is becoming more expensive on net, it creates a bit of a buffer, a bit of an offset” for stocks, said Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Gillian Wolff.

Gold, which strengthens when interest rates fall, is expected to fuel further gains following rate reductions in Canada and the U.S.

“The rate cut advantages everything,” said Brian Madden, chief investment officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel. In addition to gold stocks, he noted the TSX is heavily concentrated in rate-sensitive defensive sectors including utilities and telecommunications as well and financials, all of which are likely to continue performing well.

A handful of standout individual stocks have also lifted the index. Toronto-Dominion Bank and e-commerce provider Shopify Inc., in particular, have provided the two largest boosts to the gauge this year. Shares of TD Bank staged a sharp recovery this year after a series of scandals in 2024 led to restrictions on its expansion in the U.S. and executive changes.

Overall, Canada’s banks have held up better than expected in the face of tariffs and a macroeconomic slowdown. All but one of the Big Six banks came ahead of analyst expectations in the third quarter as the country’s largest lenders set less money aside for potentially bad loans.

Shopify, meanwhile, has climbed this year to briefly become the country’s most valuable stock on a combination of “blowout” quarterly results and general strength in the tech sector.

Written by Bloomberg

Economic news

As the Bank of Canada on Wednesday lowered its overnight benchmark by 25 basis points from 2.75 per cent to 2.5 per cent, experts say homeowners looking to renew their mortgages have a chance to save.

Commercial lenders, like private banks, base their rates on the key policy rate set by the central bank. According to the Bank of Canada’s own research, 60 per cent of all Canadian mortgages will be up for renewal in 2025 and 2026.

Variable-rate mortgages are determined by the central bank’s interest rates, while fixed-rate mortgages are determined by activity in the bond market.

“Renewing a mortgage got a little easier on Wednesday, but only if you’re sniffing out a variable rate,” said Clay Jarvis, mortgage expert at NerdWallet Canada.

“Variables have dipped by up to 30 basis points at some lenders and are well below four per cent at some brokerages and online lenders.” Those looking to wait a little longer to see if the bank cuts rates further should lock down a rate sooner rather than later, said Penelope Graham, mortgage expert at Ratehub.ca.

“If you’re someone who is strongly considering getting a variable mortgage rate and you’re wondering if you should wait until perhaps October or December (for the next interest rate cut), it’s actually a great idea to get a rate hold now for up to 120 days,” she said.

“Even if we do get a couple more rate cuts, you will still enjoy whatever those lowest rates now are.” Jarvis said the Bank of Canada’s rate cut could make variable rates very tempting, but there are risks for borrowers to consider.

“Because of the affordability component, variables can look especially tasty. But it’s really important to remember that once the BoC is done cutting rates, they’ll eventually have to start increasing them,” he said.

“If you’re not comfortable with that level of risk, consider a fixed rate. Fixed rates aren’t as flexible, but they’re predictable and widely available for under four per cent.”

Whether you’re planning to renew with a fixed- or variable-rate mortgage should depend on what your housing needs are, said Leah Zlatkin, licensed mortgage broker and LowestRates.ca expert.

If you’re planning to move in a few years, a variable mortgage might make sense since it typically has a lower penalty if you want to break it.

“That’s going to offer you more flexibility should you need to break it. If everything’s going to remain consistent, and you’re good to go for the next three to five years, you can absolutely lock into a fixed,” she said.

Zlatkin recommends you start shopping for a new mortgage at least four months ahead of your renewal date.

“If you’re sitting in the five per cent range right now, it might be a good time to break that mortgage and look for a lower rate,” she said, adding that the closer to the renewal date you break your mortgage, the lower the penalty is likely to be.

What ends up costing many Canadians when renewal comes around is loyalty to their bank or lender, Graham said.

“If you are renewing with your existing lender, they send you that renewal letter and it says, ‘Hey, here’s your new renewal rate, just sign on the dotted line quick and easy,’” she said.

A recent survey said 69 per cent of Canadians end up staying with their current lender when renewing their mortgage. Another survey said three in four Canadians stick with the ‘Big Five’ banks – RBC, TD, BMO, CIBC and Scotiabank.

“It’s usually not the most competitive rate available because lenders tend to reserve those for brand new clients.”

According to Ratehub.ca analysis, Canadians end up paying $155 a month more on average if they stick with their current lender. Over a five-year period, that’s a difference of around $9,300.

In November last year, Canada’s banking regulator made it easier to switch lenders by removing the stress test requirement for a mortgage switch where the principal amount and amortization period haven’t changed.

“If you’re coming up for renewal, it’s in your best interest to at least explore your other options with other lenders,” Graham said.

Written by Uday Rana

Global News

The newly created Build Canada Homes agency will oversee plans to build 4,000 homes on six federally owned sites, as part of a $13 billion agency budget to speed up affordable home building, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Sunday.

Carney said that the $13 billion will offer financial incentives for builders to construct affordable homes and reduce upfront costs of affordable homebuilding.

Specific locations for the homes have not yet been announced, but Carney said they will be in Dartmouth, N.S., Longueuil, Que., Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg and Edmonton.

Construction is expected to begin on the first of these homes next year, according to a senior government official.

“The core challenge present in the housing market is it’s just too hard to build,” Carney said at a press conference in Nepean.

Carney said he’s asked his colleagues to identify land owned by government departments that can be used for housing, which will be added to the list of 88 properties on the Canada Land Bank that are available.

He said this will “help lower costs for builders and most importantly, lower the rents and new home prices for Canadian families.”

Carney said that the new agency will also look to speed up the permitting process, by giving the “green light” to bulk projects.

The government’s rental protection fund, which helps community housing groups purchase private rental units in order to keep them affordable, will continue under Build Canada Homes.

The agency uses the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation definition of “affordable housing”, which is costing less than 30% of pre-tax household income.

The new agency will also include a $1 billion fund for transitional housing projects aimed to help people at risk of homelessness.

Build Canada Homes is meant to be the main agency overseeing affordable housing projects that involve the federal government.

“Build Canada Homes will prioritize the use of cost-efficient and modern methods of construction, including factory build, modular and mass timber,” Carney said.

Factory-build homes, he said, can be mass-produced in controlled settings and assembled in days, enabling construction to happen in the winter.

This will include a partnership with the Nunavut Housing Corporation to build some homes off site. The partnership with Build Canada Homes is expected to build 700 homes, about 30% of which will be built off site and shipped to Nunavut, Carney said.

He said the agency will also adopt the federal government’s recently announced “Buy Canadian” policy, which is meant to prioritize the use of Canadian materials and inputs as a way to help bolster the economy in the face of U.S. tariffs.

The agency’s CEO, Ana Bailão, is a former Toronto city councillor and deputy mayor who has served on the board of Toronto Community Housing.

Written by David Baxter, The Canadian Press