Today, the Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate by 25 bps to 2.5%, joining the six other G-10 central banks that have tightened monetary policy to combat inflation. The Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate at its last meeting and is expected to hike rates again this afternoon. Washington may delay the […]

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.1% year over year in September, up from 3.0% in August. Higher gasoline prices led the acceleration in September (+27.8%) compared with August (+22.8%). Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.2%, after increasing 2.4% in August. Moderating the acceleration in the all-items CPI in September were smaller year-over-year price increases for travel tours […]

The number of home sales recorded over the Canadian MLS Systems fell by 2.3% m/m in September as inflation fears triggered the biggest bond selloff in years. Rising fixed mortgage rates have spooked potential buyers, even as home prices continue to fall. “After a four-month run of modestly positive progress on demand, supply, and prices, […]

Employment fell in September, continuing a stream of lacklustre labour force surveys. Canadian jobs fell by 68,300, wiping out all of this year’s job gains as the trade war with the U.S. drags on and the Iran war continues. The employment rate fell for a second consecutive time by 0.2% percentage points to 60.6%. Roughly half […]

The Federal Open Market Committee, the Bank of Canada’s equivalent of the Governing Council, announced last week that it would raise the overnight federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-to-4.0%. The key question is whether it’s a one-off or the start of something deeper and longer. We suspect the latter. The Fed has more […]

Employment in Canada fell by 41,700 in August, reversing some of the labour market momentum seen in recent months as the manufacturing sector posted the only significant increase. The employment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 60.8%. The employment rate in August was on par with the rate recorded at the start of the year, and […]

Today, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate at 2.25%, the level it has held since October 2025. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. According to the Bank’s policy statement, “The continuing conflict in the Middle East […]

Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy grew at a whopping 3.3% pace in the second quarter, following an upwardly revised 0.3% in Q1 led by upward revisions to exports, particularly non-metallic minerals and energy products.  This wipes out the two quarters of negative growth that triggered recession fears. Indeed, a sharp rise […]

According to data released this morning by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canadian housing market continued to improve in July. Home sales increased month-over-month (m/m) by 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Chief Economist, said, “At the national level, July’s housing data was a carbon copy of the June […]

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% y/y in July, following the June gain of 2.8%. The inflation uptick was caused by higher gasoline prices and a rise in the cost of travel tours. Slowing the faster price growth was the deceleration in grocery prices. The all-items CPI excluding gasoline rose 2.2% for the third […]