Today, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering just under 2% and core inflation falling to 2.3%, the Governing Council sees the current overnight rate […]

Today’s release of February housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the housing market slowed further at the start of the month, reflecting the lingering effect of January’s snowstorm. Activity picked up in the second half of the month, a positive harbinger of a spring rebound. The number of home sales recorded […]

Canadian Inflation Falls More Than Expected to 1.8% in February Canada’s inflation rate slowed by more than expected last month, before the oil shock of the Iran war. The yearly inflation rate fell to 1.8% in February from 2.3% in January, Statistics Canada reported on Monday. Justin Trudeau introduced a temporary GST/HST break on a […]

The Canadian Jobs Report Was Much Weaker Than Expected In February  Today’s Labour Force Survey showed considerable weakness last month, even before the Gulf War took hold of the global economy. Employment fell by 83,400 jobs after edging down in January (-25,000; -0.1%). This is the largest decline in employment in more than four years. On a […]

The Canadian Economy Shrinks by 0.6% in Q4, Owing to a Decline in Business Inventories Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy contracted by 0.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, a significant reversal from the 2.4% expansion posted in Q3. The weaker growth rate reflected a steep decline in business inventories, which […]

CPI Inflation in Canada Fell A Tick to 2.3% Y/Y in January on Gasoline Price Decline The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 2.4% increase in December. The gasoline price index was the largest contributor to the deceleration in headline inflation, with a larger decline in January than in […]

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 2.2% increase in the prior two months. The year-over-year acceleration in the all-items CPI was driven by the temporary Goods and Services Tax (GST)/Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) break that began on December 14, 2024. This resulted in monthly declines for the exempt goods and services, which have now […]

Today’s release of December housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the market ended 2025 with declining sales and prices due to ongoing economic uncertainty. The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems declined 2.7% m/m in December. On an annual basis, transactions totalled 470,314 units last year, a 1.9% decrease […]

Today’s Canadian Labour Force Survey for December was weaker than expected. Employment was little changed (+8200; 0.0%), and the employment rate held steady at 60.9%. This followed three consecutive monthly increases. The jobless rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%, as more people searched for work. The increase in the unemployment rate in December partially […]

The Canadian real estate industry may focus on rate decisions, but the mortgage industry is watching bond markets. The Government of Canada’s (GoC) 5-year bond yield—a key benchmark for fixed-rate mortgages—has surged in recent weeks, pushing borrowing costs higher instead of providing relief. The move reflects rapid market repricing, driven by stronger economic data and a global […]