Lenders have started raising fixed mortgage rates again, with signs pointing to a short-term upward trend.

Fixed mortgage rates have been creeping upward over the past week, fuelled by a modest rebound in bond yields following stronger-than-expected economic data. The increases were partly driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the 5-year rising above 4% following stronger-than-expected inflation data. That, in turn, helped lift Canadian bond yields, which are closely linked to their U.S. counterparts.

On this side of the border, Canada’s strong June employment report added to the momentum. Since fixed mortgage rates are closely tied to government bond yields, the upward pressure was enough to prompt some lenders to raise pricing, particularly on 3- and 5-year terms.

Rate hikes of around five to 10 basis points (0.05 to 0.10 percentage points) were seen by some lenders over the past week, with further increases continuing into this week.

While the changes varied by lender, they reflect what some observers see as a short-term trend toward higher fixed rates.

“Some lenders responded by increasing their fixed mortgage rates on Friday and I expect others to follow,” wrote mortgage broker Dave Larock. “Those increases are consistent with my recent assessment that bond yields, and the fixed mortgage rates that are priced on them, now have an upward bias.”

Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage said the upward move in longer-term yields is also being shaped by broader fiscal pressures. “The spectre of growing government deficits all over the world is creating capacity concerns,” he told Canadian Mortgage Trends.

He added that 3- to 5-year fixed mortgage rates—currently in the 4% range—will likely stay around these levels for the next few months.

Inflation data firm expectations for BoC hold

Larock noted that while June’s jobs data may not significantly affect the Bank of Canada’s rate outlook, the June inflation results released Tuesday will. Statistics Canada reported that the country’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 1.9% in June, with core inflation measures remaining stubborn.

That firmed expectations the Bank of Canada will hold its key rate on July 30, which would mean no change for existing variable-rate and HELOC borrowers.

“The central bank will almost certainly hold this month,” Butler said, though he still sees the potential for a cut later in the year. “No cuts from the BoC in July or September seem likely, but I expect one in October or December as the economy worsens.”

Many fixed terms still closely priced

Despite the recent hikes, Larock pointed out that fixed rates remain below their long-term averages. Term premiums, which are typically the extra cost of locking in for longer, are starting to return, but many popular fixed terms are still priced similarly.

In cases where 3- and 5-year terms are comparable, Larock said he continues to favour the 5-year fixed.

He added that variable rates are likely to deliver the lowest overall borrowing cost over time, assuming rate cuts materialize as expected. But he cautions that variable-rate borrowers need to be prepared for continued volatility and higher payments if the timing of those cuts shifts further out.

“Anyone choosing a variable rate should do so only if they can live with its inherent potential for volatility and if they have the financial capacity to withstand higher costs (and, in some cases, higher payments) should my forecast prove incorrect,” he wrote.

Written by Steven Huebl, Canadian Mortgage Trends

Retiring with mortgage debt is no longer the exception—it’s quickly becoming the norm as rising housing costs and later-life borrowing reshape retirement in Canada.

According to a 2024 Royal LePage survey, 30% of Canadians planning to retire in the next two years expect to carry mortgage debt into retirement, up from just 14% in 2016. That’s a dramatic shift in less than a decade, and a strong signal that Canada’s retirement landscape is changing.

So what’s behind this trend, and should you be concerned if you’re heading into retirement with a mortgage?

Why are more Canadians retiring with mortgage debt?

A combination of rising home values, later-life borrowing, and changing retirement expectations is reshaping what retirement looks like in Canada. Based on the Royal LePage study and what we see daily with our clients, here are the big drivers:

Homeownership is more expensive than ever

Canadian home prices have climbed significantly over the past 20 years. Many pre-retirees simply haven’t had enough runway to fully pay off their mortgages, especially if they bought later in life or refinanced during the low-rate era.

Many Canadians are helping their kids

Royal LePage found that 48% of Canadians aged 55+ who have children say they’ve helped them financially, often with a down payment. Some took out home equity loans or refinanced to do so, meaning they’re now carrying that debt into retirement.

Retirement timelines are shifting

Nearly one-third of soon-to-be retirees said they would consider delaying retirement specifically to manage their mortgage. Others plan to carry the debt and budget accordingly, signalling a growing comfort with retiring while still in repayment mode.

People are tapping into home equity

Whether it’s funding a renovation, covering lifestyle expenses, or providing intergenerational support, many Canadians are using HELOCs, cash-out refinances, or even reverse mortgages, tools that often leave a balance on the books into retirement.

Is it bad to retire with a mortgage?

Not inherently. Like most financial questions, the answer depends on context, your income, assets, goals, and whether you have a plan.

When it might make sense:

• Your retirement income easily supports the payments
• You’re using the mortgage strategically, such as helping family or maintaining liquidity
• You have sufficient home equity and diversified retirement assets
• You have a clear repayment or debt-reduction strategy

When it’s risky:

• Mortgage payments strain your fixed income
• You’re dipping into RRSPs or credit lines to stay afloat
• There’s no end plan for the debt
• You’re vulnerable to interest rate increases or surprise expenses

What are smart mortgage strategies for retirees

If you’re approaching retirement with a mortgage, or already in it, there are options to keep the debt manageable and aligned with your lifestyle.

1. Downsize to reset your financial picture

Selling a large or high-maintenance home can wipe out your mortgage and free up capital. It’s one of the most effective ways to improve cash flow while keeping your equity working for you.

2. Consider a reverse mortgage

A reverse mortgage can offer access to equity without monthly payments, making it easier to stay in your home comfortably. It’s not for everyone, but in the right case, it offers real peace of mind.

3. Refinance before you retire

If you’re still working, you may qualify for better terms or a longer amortization, lowering monthly payments and giving you flexibility as you transition into retirement.

4. Talk to a mortgage professional

Don’t go it alone. A mortgage broker who understands both retirement income planning and lending criteria can help structure a solution that protects your lifestyle, and your long-term plans.

The new retirement reality in Canada

The Royal LePage study makes one thing crystal clear: the days of entering retirement mortgage-free are fading fast. For today’s retirees and those coming up behind them, the new norm involves carrying some level of debt, and being thoughtful about how to manage it.

So ask yourself:

• Can your pension or retirement income safely cover your mortgage?
• Are you holding a manageable amount of debt, or is it limiting your financial flexibility?
• Have you stress-tested your retirement plan for future rate changes or cash flow shifts?

Retiring with a mortgage isn’t ideal, but it’s also not a dealbreaker. The key is to go in with eyes wide open, and a plan that works for your life.

Written by

Ross Taylor

Mortgage Strategies

July 18, 2025

Fixed mortgage rates creep higher as bond yields rise

Lenders have started raising fixed mortgage rates again, with signs pointing to a short-term upward trend.

Fixed mortgage rates have been creeping upward over the past week, fuelled by a modest rebound in bond yields following stronger-than-expected economic data.

The increases were partly driven by rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the 5-year rising above 4% following stronger-than-expected inflation data. That, in turn, helped lift Canadian bond yields, which are closely linked to their U.S. counterparts.

On this side of the border, Canada’s strong June employment report added to the momentum. Since fixed mortgage rates are closely tied to government bond yields, the upward pressure was enough to prompt some lenders to raise pricing, particularly on 3- and 5-year terms.

Rate hikes of around five to 10 basis points (0.05 to 0.10 percentage points) were seen by some lenders over the past week, with further increases continuing into this week.

While the changes varied by lender, they reflect what some observers see as a short-term trend toward higher fixed rates.

“Some lenders responded by increasing their fixed mortgage rates on Friday and I expect others to follow,” wrote mortgage broker Dave Larock. “Those increases are consistent with my recent assessment that bond yields, and the fixed mortgage rates that are priced on them, now have an upward bias.”

Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage said the upward move in longer-term yields is also being shaped by broader fiscal pressures. “The spectre of growing government deficits all over the world is creating capacity concerns,” he told Canadian Mortgage Trends.

He added that 3- to 5-year fixed mortgage rates—currently in the 4% range—will likely stay around these levels for the next few months.

Inflation data firm expectations for BoC hold

Larock noted that while June’s jobs data may not significantly affect the Bank of Canada’s rate outlook, the June inflation results released Tuesday will. Statistics Canada reported that the country’s annual inflation rate ticked up to 1.9% in June, with core inflation measures remaining stubborn.

That firmed expectations the Bank of Canada will hold its key rate on July 30, which would mean no change for existing variable-rate and HELOC borrowers.

“The central bank will almost certainly hold this month,” Butler said, though he still sees the potential for a cut later in the year. “No cuts from the BoC in July or September seem likely, but I expect one in October or December as the economy worsens.”

Many fixed terms still closely priced

Despite the recent hikes, Larock pointed out that fixed rates remain below their long-term averages. Term premiums, which are typically the extra cost of locking in for longer, are starting to return, but many popular fixed terms are still priced similarly.

In cases where 3- and 5-year terms are comparable, Larock said he continues to favour the 5-year fixed.

He added that variable rates are likely to deliver the lowest overall borrowing cost over time, assuming rate cuts materialize as expected. But he cautions that variable-rate borrowers need to be prepared for continued volatility and higher payments if the timing of those cuts shifts further out.

“Anyone choosing a variable rate should do so only if they can live with its inherent potential for volatility and if they have the financial capacity to withstand higher costs (and, in some cases, higher payments) should my forecast prove incorrect,” he wrote.

Written by Steve Huebl, Canadian Mortgage Trends

Update from Dr. Sherry Cooper:

There is every indication that the housing markets in the GTA and the GVA are beginning to perk up following a disappointing Spring market. Sales generally increased in May and June, and new listings fell last month. The price data suggest a flattening in prices. Tariff uncertainty has swamped the psychology of many potential buyers, who are reticent to make a move. The latest 35% tariff threat from Washington doesn’t help.

And while the central bank was expected to lower interest rates further, it took a pass at the prior two meetings and is likely to do so again on July 30th when it meets. This morning’s CPI release for June showed a continued rise in core inflation, effectively ruling out a BoC rate cut.

Moreover, longer-term interest rates are market-driven and have been trending higher since March, when tariff sabre-rattling began in earnest. Canada’s five-year government bond yield broke above its key 3% support level in the past week. This could well trigger another rise in fixed mortgage rates. Furthermore, the Canadian two-year yield is 2.83%, which is above the Bank’s overnight policy rate of 2.75%. This suggests that monetary easing in Canada may be over for this cycle, provided the economy remains resilient. Of course, given the TACO issue (an acronym that stands for Trump Always Chickens Out), any forecast bears more than the usual uncertainty.

Written by Dr. Sherry Cooper

I have a story to share today.

One that might shift your frequency.

The first day the COVID lockdown was finally lifted, I rushed to a little café with a friend. Just the joy of being able to eat out again felt like a celebration.

We had to wait 20 minutes to get in. The place was packed. People stood outside, smiling behind their masks, desperate for a taste of normal life.

Do you remember that time?

The world was still a little raw. A little awkward. But something inside all of us just wanted connection again.

Now here’s where it gets… interesting.

The service?

Well, let’s just say the universe was testing us.

First came the coffee.
And it was served at room temperature.

Now, in Northern Europe, “room temperature” means achingly cold.

I flagged the waitress—kindly—and asked if I could get a fresh, hot one.

She nodded. And then vanished into the void. No second cup.

Then the food came.

I had ordered an omelet with a side of guacamole.
Now, if you know me, you know this part already:

Guacamole is sacred.

It is the nectar of the gods. The green gold of civilization.

So when my plate arrived—without the guacamole—part of me broke inside.

I was low-key triggered.

Meanwhile, my friend across the table was getting increasingly annoyed. The cold coffee. The missing guac.

The delay. The forgotten request. The waitress was barely looking up from her notepad.

“This is ridiculous,” she muttered.

But here’s the thing—I wasn’t mad.

Because earlier that morning, I had done my 6 Phase Meditation, and Phase 1—Compassion—had already shifted something in me.

I took a breath. And I looked at the waitress—really looked at her.

That waitress had probably been jobless for three months.

We were all locked down. Restaurants were shut.
And like the rest of us, she was probably feeling painfully alone.

But unlike us, she may have had the added weight of worry:

Where’s the next paycheck coming from?
How will I take care of the kids?
What if the café closes again next week?

Now she’s back on the job, wearing a mask over her nose and mouth for 10 straight hours in an overcrowded café.
And from the corner of her eye, she can see a line of 20 more customers outside, waiting to be seated.

She’s probably doing her best to keep up with a tidal wave of requests, all while quietly holding this terrifying truth in the back of her mind:

“This could all disappear again.”

So yeah. From that perspective?

She was doing a hell of a job. 

What if she hadn’t worked in three months?
What if she was terrified of losing her job again?
What if she was carrying the weight of bills, kids, or long-haul COVID… and still showed up?

So when the bill came, I tipped her 20 euros on a 40-euro meal.

My friend nearly choked.

“Are you serious? She messed up everything.”

I just smiled and said, “Yeah. But she’s still standing.

And I respect that.”

We walked out of that café a little more caffeinated… and a lot more compassionate.

Now here’s where it gets interesting.

I kept thinking about it.

Not the guac. Okay, maybe the guac.
But mostly—the power of that one choice.

The choice to see differently. To act differently.

And then a bigger thought hit me:

Why do we do this so rarely, when this is exactly what all our sacred texts ask of us?

What would Jesus do?

If Jesus were in that café, He wouldn’t be muttering under His breath.
He wouldn’t be demanding a free meal.
He’d smile. Tip. Maybe even bless her on the way out.

If you’re Muslim, maybe you’d reflect on the principle of Zakat.

To give without expectation.
To see others through the eyes of mercy, not merit.

But maybe religion isn’t your thing. That’s cool. You still need a compass, right?

So here’s one I love—equal parts spiritual and cinematic legend:

WWKD — What Would Keanu Do?

Yes. That Keanu.

Whether it was his role as Neo in The Matrix, the deadly but noble John Wick, or the ever-optimistic Ted in Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure, Keanu Reeves is considered one of the nicest humans on Earth.

And it’s not just fan hype.

It’s the way he lives.

This is a man who…

• Lost the love of his life in a tragic car accident.
  Lost his child before she was born.
  Lost his best friend, River Phoenix, to an overdose.

He’s known loss. He’s known grief.

And maybe that’s why he walks through life with more humility.
More softness.
More presence.

You’ve heard the stories:

• He quietly donates millions to children’s hospitals.
• He buys meals for homeless strangers—no cameras, no PR.
• He gave away most of his Matrix salary to the crew and special effects team.
• He bought Rolex watches for his John Wick 4 stunt team—engraved, personalized.
• He gives up his subway seat without blinking.
• He takes time for every fan, every photo, every hug.
• He mourns privately and deeply… and still shows up with gentleness in his eyes.

So when the world throws you a test—

An annoying waiter.
A rude email.
A delayed flight.
A missing guacamole incident…

You don’t have to fight back.

You can ask:

What Would Keanu Do?

Written by Vishen Lakhiani, Mindvalley

You’ve worked hard. Raised children. Weathered storms. And now, it’s your time.

Whether you’re 55 or 75, being divorced in this stage of life often comes with a unique blend of freedom, wisdom—and yes, financial questions. You might be thinking about travel, healthcare, supporting grandkids, or just making sure your retirement years are as stress-free as possible.

One question you might not have considered:
Could your home help pay you back?

It’s called a reverse mortgage, and for many independent women it’s becoming an unexpected tool for financial peace of mind.

By Kim Franz

“With a reverse mortgage, you no longer own your home.”

FALSE. You always maintain title, ownership, and control of your home, as long you continue to meet your mortgage obligations (i.e., paying property taxes and maintaining the home). The reverse mortgage lender simply has a first mortgage on the title, in the same way as a traditional mortgage.

“You’ll owe more than the value of your home.”

FALSE. It is federally mandated that all reverse mortgages come with a “no negative equity guarantee.” As long as you meet the required mortgage obligations, the amount you owe on the due date will not exceed the fair market value of your home.

“Reverse mortgages are expensive.”

FALSE. An appraisal of your property and independent legal advice is required for a reverse mortgage. Additional fees include a closing and administration fee. When compared to alternatives like downsizing or moving to another home, a reverse mortgage can be an affordable option.

“Reverse mortgages have higher interest rates.”

DEPENDS. While interest rates are typically higher than a traditional mortgage, it’s important to remember that for many retired Canadians, monthly mortgage payments are difficult to afford. Plus, many struggle to even qualify for a traditional mortgage. For these reasons, many retired Canadians choose a reverse mortgage over traditional solutions.

“You can’t pass on your home.”

FALSE. Your heirs will always have the option to keep the property by paying off your reverse mortgage after you pass away. In addition, with the “no negative equity guarantee,” your heirs will never owe more than the fair market value of the home, as long as all mortgage obligations were maintained.

Written by Equitable Bank

You may consider a reverse mortgage to turn your home equity into tax-free cash as part of your retirement solution. But, you might question, “With a reverse mortgage will I owe more than my home is worth?”

The answer to this is NO.

The CHIP Reverse Mortgage has safeguards built into products to ensure you are not at risk of losing your home or equity.

What is the No Negative Equity Guarantee? 

The No Negative Equity Guarantee* ensures that if you meet your property taxes and mortgage obligations, HomeEquity Bank guarantees that the amount owed on the due date will not exceed the fair market value of your home. If the house depreciates and the mortgage amount due is more than the gross proceeds from the sale of the property, HomeEquity Bank covers the difference between the sale price and the loan amount.

Ultimately, the No Negative Equity Guarantee keeps you and your equity secure in your home. The peace of mind you get from leveraging a reverse mortgage is protected no matter the economic backdrop.

Does a home ever sell for less than the mortgage balance?

This is extremely rare. HomeEquity Bank never lends more than 55% of the home’s value for this reason. Over the past 30+ years, 99% of Reverse Mortgage holders have had equity left in their home; on average, this equity amounts to 60%. Escalating real estate value boosts the equity in the house, reducing the impact of interest charged to the mortgage principal. The homeowner keeps all the equity remaining in the home. That equity depends on the amount borrowed, the value of the house, and the time that has passed since the reverse mortgage was taken out.

Contact me if you have any questions about The CHIP Reverse Mortgage!

*As long as you keep your property in good maintenance, pay your property taxes and property insurance and your property is not in default. The guarantee excludes administrative expenses and interest that has accumulated after the due date.

Written by HomeEquity Bank

Some changes coming down the pipe!  I have been accepted into the SMCP accreditation program.

What is SMCP?

Smith Manoeuvre Certified Professional – a mortgage/investment/tax strategy to help you pay your mortgage down faster, invest for your future, and receive tax refunds while you are doing it.

Sound intrigued???  Stay tuned… I am taking the course, writing the exam, and then I’ll fill you in with more details.

Have a great week and stay safe this long weekend!

Kim

Canadian national home sales were up 3.6% month-over-month.

Global Tariff Uncertainty Sidelines Buyers

Canadian existing home sales recorded over the MLS Systems climbed 3.6% between April and May, a normally strong month for housing, marking the first gain in activity since last November.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Calgary, and Ottawa led the monthly increase.

“May 2025 not only saw home sales move higher at the national level for the first time in more than six months, but prices at the national level also stopped falling,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “It’s only one month of data, and one car doesn’t make a parade, but there is a sense that maybe the expected turnaround in housing activity this year was just delayed for a few months by the initial tariff chaos and uncertainty.”

New Listings

New supply declined by 1% month-over-month in April. Combined with flat sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio climbed to 46.8% compared to 46.4% in March. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

At the end of April 2025, 183,000 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 14.3% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average of around 201,000 listings.

“The number of homes for sale across Canada has almost returned to normal, but that is the result of higher inventories in B.C. and Ontario, and tight inventories everywhere else,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair.

There were 5.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of April 2025, which is in line with the long-term average of five months. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months and a buyer’s market above 6.4 months.

New supply rose by 3.1% month-over-month in May. Given a similar increase in sales activity, the national sales-to-new listings ratio was 47%, almost unchanged from 46.8% in April. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

At the end of May 2025, 201,880 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 13.2% from a year earlier but remaining about 5% below the long-term average of around 211,500 listings for the month.

“May saw an increased number of new listings hitting the market early in the month, followed by a higher number of transactions in the second half of the month, so overall more sellers and buyers compared to April,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “It seems like this may carry over into June as well.”

There were 4.9 months of inventory nationally at the end of May 2025, near the long-term average of five months. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was relatively unchanged (-0.2%) from April to May 2025. The pause follows three straight month-over-month declines of closer to 1%. The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.5% compared to May 2024.

Bottom Line

The First-Time Homebuyers GST Rebate on newly built homes took effect for purchase agreements dated on or after May 27. This may bring some additional buyers into sales offices, but it’ll be a while before those projects break ground and show up in the housing starts statistics.

In the resale market, May saw the first signs of optimism in home sales in six months, but sales remain at the low end of seasonal norms. While trade war uncertainty still looms, average and benchmark prices have fallen to about 17% below their early 2022 peaks. The opportunity may have been too good for some buyers to pass up.

New listings picked up about 3% from April, while inventory held steady at nearly five months. With this excess supply in the market, average sale prices ticked up only slightly in May but remain flat over the past year, while the benchmark price declined marginally.

Regional differences remained significant. Home sales reversed course in Quebec City, but the average selling price increased, reaching a new high. Despite stronger sales in Toronto and Vancouver, these cities remained deep in buyer’s market territory.

While one good month of home sales doesn’t make a trend, there may be signs of cautious optimism for the resale market for those buyers who remain little affected by the ongoing trade war. The combination of lower prices, more inventory and less economic uncertainty should continue to entice more homebuyers back into the market this summer. This would be more likely if the Bank of Canada cuts rates again, which could well happen in July if the inflation readings improve, especially for core inflation.

Written by DLC Chief Economist Dr Sherry Cooper