Calgary to be Canada’s top real estate market amid transitionary 2026, report says

General Kim Franz 13 Nov

PwC also anticipates the growth of prefabricated and modular homes in 2026, provided the financing options adapt.

Real estate is expected to be in transition next year as companies look to find new sources of growth, with Calgary’s market emerging as a particular bright spot, according to a PwC Canada report.

The report, completed in partnership with the Urban Land Institute (ULI), said there will be a shift to rental properties in Canada’s two largest real estate markets.

“In Toronto and Vancouver, the condo reset is steering capital to rental, including asset classes like student housing. Leaders in 2026 will be companies who partner widely, adopt technology confidently and get creative in how they structure and finance deals,” Richard Joy, executive director of ULI Toronto, said in a release. “But Calgary remains a standout, with policy agility and supply delivery driving momentum.”

PwC said Calgary’s strong economy, record-breaking housing construction over the past three years and strong population growth are reasons why the city should have the strongest market next year.

Outside Calgary, PwC expects Canada’s real estate landscape to be in “transition” for 2026 because rental construction is expected to climb as developers take advantage of funding programs and pivot their projects to rental properties from condos.

“Canadian real estate is at a pivotal moment — policy momentum is building, and the sector’s ability to collaborate across industries is opening doors to new opportunities,” Fred Cassano, a partner and national real estate leader at PwC Canada, said.

“Addressing the construction shortage is essential, as its impact ripples across every asset class, from housing to retail and industrial. By embracing new approaches and partnerships, we have a tremendous opportunity to build the spaces our communities need and unlock growth throughout the market.”

PwC also anticipates the growth of prefabricated and modular homes in 2026, provided the financing options adapt.

During the 2025 federal election, the Liberals promised $25 billion in debt financing and $1 billion in equity financing to developers of modular homes as part of their housing strategy.

In May, Ontario also earmarked $50 million for companies to expand their modular housing construction capacity.

Governments believe modular housing is a means of boosting housing supply, but the strategy has its skeptics. A recent Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. report called modular housing “no silver bullet,” in part because many communities would rather hire local workers than ship a home from another city.

The PwC report also highlights private capital, such as real estate investment trusts and private debt, will fill the gap left by constrained traditional equity and bank debt.

“This shift is fuelling innovative business models and unlocking value in key growth areas like student housing, medical offices and other alternative sectors,” Cassano said.

As for commercial trends, PwC predicts medical offices will gain momentum as Canadians age, while increasingly dense cities are a boom for storage companies.

Written by Ben Cousins

Financial Post

Federal Budget Revamp, FY 2025-2026

General Kim Franz 4 Nov

Today, Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presented his first budget. Mark Carney was elected Prime Minister with a mandate to transform Canada’s economy and reduce its dependence on trade with the United States. The Carney government’s inaugural budget emphasizes structural changes to strengthen the domestic economy and boost non-U.S. exports, and it will be funded by an increase in government debt.

Carney, a former central banker who took office in March, has committed to decreasing reliance on the U.S. by increasing military spending, accelerating infrastructure projects, speeding up housing construction, and enhancing business competitiveness. Given the current large deficits and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio, the government cannot afford higher long-term interest rates. Carney has promised to build a stronger Canada using domestic resources and labour, noting that only 40% of the steel used in Canada is produced domestically, and he intends to change that.

Champagne has cautioned that the public service will need to shrink as the government strives to balance the budget in the coming years. Carney also faces a political challenge in convincing some opposition members to support his budget or at least abstain from voting against it. His Liberal Party caucus is currently three seats short of a majority in the House of Commons, meaning it cannot pass the budget on its own.

Unemployment remains high, economic growth is weak, and exporters, along with business investment, are still struggling due to U.S. tariffs. Carney and Champagne must persuade citizens that jobs, real wages, and living standards will eventually improve if they can stimulate both domestic and foreign investment.

Last week, the Bank of Canada indicated that it is nearing the limit of monetary stimulus it can provide without triggering inflation. Governor Tiff Macklem has consistently stated that he sees fiscal policy as a more effective tool to counter the adverse effects of the trade war, which he perceives as a negative supply shock.

The chart above indicates that Canada not only had the lowest deficit-to-GDP ratio in the G-7 but also among all countries with a triple-A credit rating. However, the rate at which we are issuing net new debt is expected to accelerate over the next year or two. Canada needs to assure the bond market that we will maintain our triple-A credit rating to keep financing costs manageable.

Ottawa has divided the budget into two parts: the operating budget and the capital spending budget. The operating budget covers the costs of running the federal government, which includes salaries, wages, rent, and interest payments on the debt. Carney has urged government leaders to review their operating budgets and eliminate unnecessary costs, which include downsizing the federal workforce.

A similar approach is used in countries like the United Kingdom and New Zealand, as well as by some provinces here at home. In principle, this shift could enhance transparency by allowing a better understanding of how public funds are allocated between day‑to‑day program spending and long‑term investments intended to boost future growth.

The capital spending budget is more complex because it’s harder to determine which expenditures will enhance growth and productivity. For instance, while the government is increasing defence spending to meet our NATO obligations, not all of it will contribute to productivity growth.

Ottawa’s agenda highlights major infrastructure projects, defence initiatives, housing, significant undertakings like pipelines, enhanced ports, and the development of the Ring of Fire. Federal leadership believes there is a role for industrial policy, as well as measures aimed at broad deregulation and tax competitiveness.

This year’s federal budget projects a deficit of $78.3 billion—nearly double the Liberals’ projection a year ago—prioritizing capital project spending over services. The deficit is expected to decrease gradually to $56.6 billion by 2029-30. Only a year ago, the Liberals forecast a 2025 budget deficit of $42.2 billion, but that was before trade uncertainty and tariff inflation hit our shores with the inauguration of Donald Trump last January.

The budget presents both downside and upside scenarios. In the downside scenario, ongoing trade uncertainty could worsen the budgetary balance by $9.2 billion annually, while the upside scenario anticipates a $5 billion annual improvement contingent on easing trade uncertainties.

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne emphasized the need for “generational” investments, allocating $25 billion to housing, $30 billion to defence, and $115 billion to infrastructure over the next five years. He criticized proposals to cap the deficit at $42 billion, advocating instead for investments to drive future growth.

The 2025 budget introduces a new format that separates capital and operational spending, with capital investments accounting for 58% of this year’s combined deficit. This shift aims to catalyze $500 billion in private-sector investment. However, we should be skeptical that such animal spirits will materialize quickly, given the immense uncertainty about the future of the Canada-Mexico-US free trade agreement.

The budget pledges to balance operational spending in three years.

Ottawa has been running a “comprehensive expenditure review” to spend less on the day-to-day operations of the federal government. According to the budget, that plan will save $13 billion annually by 2028-29, for a total of $60 billion in savings and revenues over five years.

The budget promises more taxpayer dollars will go toward “nation-building infrastructure, clean energy, innovation, productivity and less on day-to-day operating spending.” This “new discipline” will help protect social benefits, the budget promises.

The public service will see a drop of about 40,000 positions over the coming years. The budget projects it will have 330,000 employees in 2028-29, down from the 368,000 counted last year.

To confront an anemic economic picture, the government says it’s “supercharging growth” and vows to “make Canada’s investment environment more competitive than the U.S.”

To that end, the budget introduces a “productivity super-deduction” tax measure that will allow companies to write off a larger share of capital investments more quickly.

There are also new measures specifically for writing off expenses for manufacturing or processing buildings, as well as a new capital cost allowance for liquefied natural gas (LNG) equipment and related buildings.

Build Baby Build
Fast-tracking nation-building projects: In close partnership with provinces, territories, Indigenous Peoples, and private investors, the government is streamlining regulatory approvals and helping to structure financing.

Additional Cuts to Immigration
Selling it as Ottawa “taking back control” over an immigration system that has put pressure on Canada’s housing supply and health-care system, budget 2025 promises to lower admission targets.

The new plan proposes to drastically reduce the target for new temporary resident admissions from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026.

The 2026-28 immigration levels plan would keep permanent resident admission targets at 380,000 per year, down from 395,000 in 2025.

Ending Some High-End Taxes
The government is also proposing to undertake a one-time measure to accelerate the transition of up to 33,000 work permit holders to permanent residency in 2026 and 2027.

“These workers have established strong roots in their communities, are paying taxes and are helping to build the strong economy Canada needs,” the budget notes.

To fill labour gaps, the Liberals’ plan includes a foreign credential recognition action fund to work with the provinces and territories to improve transparency, timeliness and consistency of foreign credential recognition.

It would also launch a strategy to attract international talent, including a one-time initiative to recruit over 1,000 highly qualified international researchers to Canada.

In addition, there were billions of dollars in increased defence spending, the details of which are still sketchy.

Bottom Line

Nothing in this budget is surprising, as most of it has been telegraphed in recent weeks. The budget asserts that “the global trade landscape is changing rapidly, as the United States reshapes its economic relationships and supply chains around the world. The impact is profound—hurting Canadian companies, displacing workers, disrupting supply chains, and creating uncertainty that holds back investment. This level of uncertainty is greater than what we have seen in recent crises. Budget 2025 makes generational investments while maintaining Canada’s strong fiscal advantage—a foundation that allows us to invest ambitiously and responsibly, and build Canada’s economy to be the strongest in the G-7.”

Canada has the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio among the G-7 and one of the smallest deficit-to-GDP ratios. Canada and Germany are the only two G-7 economies rated triple-A, a marker of strong investor confidence which helps keep our borrowing costs as low as possible. This is a time for bold actions to bolster Canada’s competitiveness. We have products the world needs. Hopefully, we can salvage a significant part of the trade agreement with the US, but the odds suggest we build the infrastructure necessary to trade our products worldwide.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Bank of Canada Lowers Policy Rate to 2.25%

General Kim Franz 29 Oct

Bank of Canada Lowers Policy Rate to 2.25%
Today, the Bank of Canada lowered the overnight policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25% as was widely expected. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. The economy will grow at about a 0.5% pace in Q3, causing the Bank to cut rates again at the final meeting this year on December 10. The easing will then end, but rates will remain relatively subdued until more trade uncertainty is alleviated.

The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 bps this afternoon as well.

Today’s Monetary Policy Report suggests that the significant decline in export growth will persist for some time. Layoffs in trade-dependent sectors have already slowed considerably, especially in Ontario, Quebec, and some softwood lumber businesses in several provinces. The central bank acknowledged that “because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than usual, this projection is subject to a wider-than-normal range of risks.”

“In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened.  Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar.”

“Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors, including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.”

Canada’s labour market remains soft, and job vacancies have declined sharply despite the September improvement in job growth. Job losses continue to mount in trade-impacted sectors, and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1%, well above the US rate of 4.3%. Slower population growth translates into fewer new jobs and less inflation pressure. On a per capita basis, the economy is already in a recession.

The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. Quarterly, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be gradually absorbed.

“CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2.5%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon”.

“If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, the Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.”

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has shown its willingness to bolster the Canadian economy amid unprecedented trade uncertainty. While Canada is working hard to establish alternate trade partners, even China cannot replace the US in terms of proximity and cost-effectiveness, given the huge transport costs. China has stepped up its oil purchases to record levels, but larger oil flows east will require additional pipelines to BC. There is no market the size of the US market to replace exports of steel and aluminum. The US will also suffer from the economic impact of stepping away from the Canada-US-Mexico free trade deal. A renegotiation of the contract is likely to come before the end of next year. As of now, the US is signalling their desire to exit the agreement. We can only hope that cooler heads will prevail.

The auto industry is a case in point. Onshoring non-US auto production would require a 75% increase in US production and the construction of $50 billion in new factories. This would take years and significantly reduce the profitability of US auto companies.

Canada is the US’s number one supplier of steel and aluminum, with its competitively low hydroelectric costs. It will take time for the US to create the capacity to replace aluminum imports from Quebec.

Canada is the number one trading partner for 32 American states, many of which are lobbying Washington to end this CUSMA bashing.

It will take time for Canada to adjust to this new reality, which leads us to conclude that another cut in overnight rates is probable at the next decision date on December 10.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

B.C. housing bill focuses on multi-units, publicizing short-term rental penalties

General Kim Franz 14 Oct

The British Columbia government is proposing changes to its short-term rental laws, including allowing for compliance orders and penalties to be published to deter people from breaking the rules.

Housing Minister Christine Boyle tabled an omnibus housing bill in the legislature, which would make changes to multiple pieces of legislation including the Local Government Act, the Vancouver Charter and the Short-Term Rental Accommodation Act.

Along with the short-term rental changes, the government says the bill would ensure all local governments are meeting small-scale, multi-unit housing requirements that allow for more forms of housing, such as triplexes, row homes and townhouses.

The Housing Ministry says in a statement that the changes will prevent local governments from putting in restrictions that “make it more difficult to build anything other than single-family or duplex housing for communities with more than 5,000 people.”

The changes would also ensure that housing development isn’t limited because a city has rules on parking spaces per unit.

Boyle told reporters at the legislature that the majority of B.C. communities are implementing the province’s rules to build more homes to ease the housing crisis.

“There are a number of communities where there has been a bit more resistance, or where we’re seeing challenges around implementation, and the priority here is consistent implementation across municipalities,” she said after tabling the bill on Thursday.

“These tools will allow us to work with those local governments and push if needed, to make sure that the regulations are applied consistently and that more housing options are available in every community across B.C.”

Cori Ramsay, the president of the Union of B.C. Municipalities, said she expects local governments are going to be disappointed that the province continues to “centralize decision making for housing in Victoria.”

Ramsay, who is a city councillor in Prince George, said Thursday that requiring the same approach to density in all parts of a community drives up the cost for water, sewer and other core services.

“We all have different needs and the ability to maintain local planning at the local level, with local leaders who are in touch with residents, who know their communities, that is essential. That is part of that long-term infrastructure planning process,” she said.

Centralizing decision making around housing from the B.C. legislature takes away from the local residents and leaders being able to make those land-use decisions, she said.

Ramsay said it will have “negative consequences for local government across the province, and it’s going to result in significantly higher infrastructure costs for us.”

Written by The Canadian Press

Canadian stocks hit a record, topping key level of 30,000

General Kim Franz 24 Sep

Canadian stocks hit a new all-time high despite tariff threats and a weakening economy.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.3% to climb above the key psychological threshold of 30,000 for the first time on Tuesday. The gauge has posted 45 closing records this year, the most since the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021. The rally is being driven by stronger than expected earnings, a flight to shelter in gold names and easing in borrowing costs. And a fresh round of Bank of Canada interest-rate cuts is expected to stoke gains.

“It’s a big milestone obviously because it’s a nice round number,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IGM Wealth Management, a firm with $143 billion in assets under management. He added the strength of the benchmark’s performance this year and the milestone would “drive investors to take another look at the TSX.”

The Toronto Stock Exchange is on track to outperform the S&P 500 Index this year for the first time in an up year for both markets since 2016. During that period the TSX suffered a smaller loss than the S&P 500 during the downturn of 2022.

Corporate earnings in Canada have, so far, beat expectations this year at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump has slapped the country with tariffs and when unemployment has trended higher. Amid economic weakening and trade uncertainty, earnings by TSX stocks came in 7.5% ahead of expectations and marked a new high, according to Hugo Ste-Marie, director of portfolio and quantitative strategy at Scotiabank.

“If we had to describe it in one word, we would say: wow!” Ste-Marie wrote in a Sept. 15 note.

Gold miners have been the biggest driver of the TSX rally this year as bullion prices have hit all-time highs and demand for safe haven assets amid geopolitical, trade and interest-rate uncertainty intensify.

According to Fiera Capital Corp. portfolio manager Candice Bangsund, gold represents nearly 12% of the TSX.

The benchmark’s leading sector, materials, has gained 72% this year on the the back of triple-digit gains from the likes of Discovery Silver Corp., SSR Mining Inc. and Lundin Gold Inc.

More support ahead

Bangsund, who said the Canadian equity markets is more attractively valued than its global peers, sees the materials sectors continuing to prop up the Toronto Stock Exchange through 2026.

“Even if there’s decreased demand for oil products or materials products from the U.S. from Canada, if a product like gold is becoming more expensive on net, it creates a bit of a buffer, a bit of an offset” for stocks, said Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Gillian Wolff.

Gold, which strengthens when interest rates fall, is expected to fuel further gains following rate reductions in Canada and the U.S.

“The rate cut advantages everything,” said Brian Madden, chief investment officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel. In addition to gold stocks, he noted the TSX is heavily concentrated in rate-sensitive defensive sectors including utilities and telecommunications as well and financials, all of which are likely to continue performing well.

A handful of standout individual stocks have also lifted the index. Toronto-Dominion Bank and e-commerce provider Shopify Inc., in particular, have provided the two largest boosts to the gauge this year. Shares of TD Bank staged a sharp recovery this year after a series of scandals in 2024 led to restrictions on its expansion in the U.S. and executive changes.

Overall, Canada’s banks have held up better than expected in the face of tariffs and a macroeconomic slowdown. All but one of the Big Six banks came ahead of analyst expectations in the third quarter as the country’s largest lenders set less money aside for potentially bad loans.

Shopify, meanwhile, has climbed this year to briefly become the country’s most valuable stock on a combination of “blowout” quarterly results and general strength in the tech sector.

Written by Bloomberg

Economic news

Renewing your mortgage? What the Bank of Canada’s rate cut means for you

General Kim Franz 22 Sep

As the Bank of Canada on Wednesday lowered its overnight benchmark by 25 basis points from 2.75 per cent to 2.5 per cent, experts say homeowners looking to renew their mortgages have a chance to save.

Commercial lenders, like private banks, base their rates on the key policy rate set by the central bank. According to the Bank of Canada’s own research, 60 per cent of all Canadian mortgages will be up for renewal in 2025 and 2026.

Variable-rate mortgages are determined by the central bank’s interest rates, while fixed-rate mortgages are determined by activity in the bond market.

“Renewing a mortgage got a little easier on Wednesday, but only if you’re sniffing out a variable rate,” said Clay Jarvis, mortgage expert at NerdWallet Canada.

“Variables have dipped by up to 30 basis points at some lenders and are well below four per cent at some brokerages and online lenders.” Those looking to wait a little longer to see if the bank cuts rates further should lock down a rate sooner rather than later, said Penelope Graham, mortgage expert at Ratehub.ca.

“If you’re someone who is strongly considering getting a variable mortgage rate and you’re wondering if you should wait until perhaps October or December (for the next interest rate cut), it’s actually a great idea to get a rate hold now for up to 120 days,” she said.

“Even if we do get a couple more rate cuts, you will still enjoy whatever those lowest rates now are.” Jarvis said the Bank of Canada’s rate cut could make variable rates very tempting, but there are risks for borrowers to consider.

“Because of the affordability component, variables can look especially tasty. But it’s really important to remember that once the BoC is done cutting rates, they’ll eventually have to start increasing them,” he said.

“If you’re not comfortable with that level of risk, consider a fixed rate. Fixed rates aren’t as flexible, but they’re predictable and widely available for under four per cent.”

Whether you’re planning to renew with a fixed- or variable-rate mortgage should depend on what your housing needs are, said Leah Zlatkin, licensed mortgage broker and LowestRates.ca expert.

If you’re planning to move in a few years, a variable mortgage might make sense since it typically has a lower penalty if you want to break it.

“That’s going to offer you more flexibility should you need to break it. If everything’s going to remain consistent, and you’re good to go for the next three to five years, you can absolutely lock into a fixed,” she said.

Zlatkin recommends you start shopping for a new mortgage at least four months ahead of your renewal date.

“If you’re sitting in the five per cent range right now, it might be a good time to break that mortgage and look for a lower rate,” she said, adding that the closer to the renewal date you break your mortgage, the lower the penalty is likely to be.

What ends up costing many Canadians when renewal comes around is loyalty to their bank or lender, Graham said.

“If you are renewing with your existing lender, they send you that renewal letter and it says, ‘Hey, here’s your new renewal rate, just sign on the dotted line quick and easy,’” she said.

recent survey said 69 per cent of Canadians end up staying with their current lender when renewing their mortgage. Another survey said three in four Canadians stick with the ‘Big Five’ banks – RBC, TD, BMO, CIBC and Scotiabank.

“It’s usually not the most competitive rate available because lenders tend to reserve those for brand new clients.”

According to Ratehub.ca analysis, Canadians end up paying $155 a month more on average if they stick with their current lender. Over a five-year period, that’s a difference of around $9,300.

In November last year, Canada’s banking regulator made it easier to switch lenders by removing the stress test requirement for a mortgage switch where the principal amount and amortization period haven’t changed.

“If you’re coming up for renewal, it’s in your best interest to at least explore your other options with other lenders,” Graham said.

Written by Uday Rana

Global News

Build Canada Homes aims to build 4,000 housing units on federal land: Carney

General Kim Franz 15 Sep

The newly created Build Canada Homes agency will oversee plans to build 4,000 homes on six federally owned sites, as part of a $13 billion agency budget to speed up affordable home building, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Sunday.

Carney said that the $13 billion will offer financial incentives for builders to construct affordable homes and reduce upfront costs of affordable homebuilding.

Specific locations for the homes have not yet been announced, but Carney said they will be in Dartmouth, N.S., Longueuil, Que., Ottawa, Toronto, Winnipeg and Edmonton.

Construction is expected to begin on the first of these homes next year, according to a senior government official.

“The core challenge present in the housing market is it’s just too hard to build,” Carney said at a press conference in Nepean.

Carney said he’s asked his colleagues to identify land owned by government departments that can be used for housing, which will be added to the list of 88 properties on the Canada Land Bank that are available.

He said this will “help lower costs for builders and most importantly, lower the rents and new home prices for Canadian families.”

Carney said that the new agency will also look to speed up the permitting process, by giving the “green light” to bulk projects.

The government’s rental protection fund, which helps community housing groups purchase private rental units in order to keep them affordable, will continue under Build Canada Homes.

The agency uses the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation definition of “affordable housing”, which is costing less than 30% of pre-tax household income.

The new agency will also include a $1 billion fund for transitional housing projects aimed to help people at risk of homelessness.

Build Canada Homes is meant to be the main agency overseeing affordable housing projects that involve the federal government.

“Build Canada Homes will prioritize the use of cost-efficient and modern methods of construction, including factory build, modular and mass timber,” Carney said.

Factory-build homes, he said, can be mass-produced in controlled settings and assembled in days, enabling construction to happen in the winter.

This will include a partnership with the Nunavut Housing Corporation to build some homes off site. The partnership with Build Canada Homes is expected to build 700 homes, about 30% of which will be built off site and shipped to Nunavut, Carney said.

He said the agency will also adopt the federal government’s recently announced “Buy Canadian” policy, which is meant to prioritize the use of Canadian materials and inputs as a way to help bolster the economy in the face of U.S. tariffs.

The agency’s CEO, Ana Bailão, is a former Toronto city councillor and deputy mayor who has served on the board of Toronto Community Housing.

Written by David Baxter, The Canadian Press

Canadian real estate market squeezed as more seniors opt not to sell: CEO

General Kim Franz 27 Aug

Housing prices across Canada remain prohibitively high for many would-be homebuyers, and one expert says that’s partly due to Canadian seniors holding on to their homes longer than they did in the past, exacerbating a nationwide supply shortage.

“I think a lot of seniors today don’t have a better option,” Rishard Rameez, CEO and co-founder of real estate platform Zown, told BNN Bloomberg in an interview on Tuesday.

“There should be some sort of a need to move into a new home, but seniors don’t want to move into a condo where they have to use the elevators and all that. They still want to have a nice backyard where they can host family… but we don’t have those kinds of homes available for seniors.”

Rameez said those factors have made it increasingly difficult for seniors with detached homes to make the decision to downsize, even though it’s thought of as a popular and pragmatic option.

A 2023 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. report found that the proportion of Canadians older than 75 who are cashing out of the housing market fell steadily between 1991 and 2021.

“A lot of seniors actually decide to stay and age in the same place. Today, about five per cent of seniors sell their homes, compared to 13 per cent for the rest of the general population,” Rameez said.

There are also few policies in place that incentivize seniors to sell their homes in search of a better option, he explained, adding that this causes a reduction in turnover and puts pressure on real estate markets across the country.

“Who is hit the most is actually first-time homebuyers, because first-time homebuyers are the ones who are looking to buy these older, detached townhomes but we have a lack of inventory,” said Rameez.

And while inventories remain strained, younger Canadians face a “double squeeze” when the cost of renting is factored in, he argued.

“On average, young Canadians pay almost 50 per cent of their net income in rent… so it’s almost impossible for these younger Canadians to save,” Rameez said.

“Without turnover, there’s less options for people to buy from, hence these investors are able to jack up the rental prices and now Canadians are stuck paying these (high) rental prices.”

He noted that the average age of a first-time home buyer in Canada is now over 35 years of age.

“It used to be twenties, it used to be early thirties, now it’s beyond 35. Imagine someone having to pay rent for that many years before becoming a homeowner,” said Rameez.

He said Canada’s policymakers need to be looking at alternative ways to assist young Canadians in purchasing their first property, as homeownership remains a goal for many people in the country, despite the challenges it comes with.

“That’s the Canadian dream; to own your home and build a family,” Rameez said. “These aren’t just homes, these are places where people will build memories and kids will take their first steps.”

With files from The Canadian Press

Written by Jordan Fleguel

Interview of Rishard Rameez, CEO of Zown on BNN Bloomberg

Fixed or variable? Mortgage rate tug-of-war complicates the decision for Canadians

General Kim Franz 19 Aug

Borrowers are caught in a mortgage rate market that changes by the week, with little sign of stability ahead.

With every passing week, the Bank of Canada faces conflicting economic signals, leaving Canadians guessing about its next move and triggering rapid changes in mortgage rates.

After several weeks with the lowest 5-year fixed rates holding above 4%, several lenders are now offering options in the high-3% range, generally for high-ratio borrowers.

“There was a two-month period where there were lots of rates available in the three’s … and then suddenly, everything headed for the fours over about a two-week period,” says Ron Butler of Butler Mortgage. “Then bond yields took a roughly 25 basis-point reduction, and now we’re back in this very aggressive state.”

Butler notes that while not every lender has followed suit, a number are again pricing select terms below 4% in the past few days, a trend that could just as easily swing back.

“Every single news item to do with interest rates, both here and in the United States, can trigger a change in bond yields and rates,” Butler says. “What we urge people to understand is that it is that volatile; rates can all go back into the fours very soon.”

Conflicting economic signals

The current volatility isn’t driven solely by the trade war and uncertainty over long-term policy, though both play a role.

According to rate expert Ryan Sims of TMG, the market is still trying to figure out how past changes to trade policies and leadership regimes are affecting both Canada and the United States.

“We’ve got two opposing forces right now and the bond market is reacting to every single report,” he says. “You’ve got inflation in Canada slowly creeping up bit by bit, but then you’ve also got the horrible jobs numbers we saw last week.”

High inflation typically pushes the Bank of Canada to raise rates, while weak employment and a slowing economy point to cuts. What’s unusual now is that both forces are appearing at once, Sims says.

Further complicating the matter is the American economic picture, which directly influences Canada’s 5-year bond yield, and with it, fixed mortgages. Though there are some cracks starting to form, the U.S. economy appears to be outpacing expectations.

“Whether you agree with the current administration or not, the data is coming in strong — employment is healthy, GDP is growing at a good clip, inflation is fairly malignant right now — so I don’t think you’ll get the rate cut from the U.S. Fed that everyone was banking on this year,” Sims explains. “It’s a lot harder for the Bank of Canada to cut when the U.S. Fed isn’t cutting.”

Even as the Bank of Canada shows little inclination to cut its policy rate, which drives the prime rate and variable borrowing costs, Canada’s big banks have been lowering mortgage rates after earlier hikes to win over renewers in a slow market.

“They’re being very competitive on rates, and it makes sense, because they’re going to gain some market share, they’ve now got that customer they can cross-solicit to open a bank account, an investment account, a credit card, what have you,” Sims says. “As we approach [their fiscal year-end on] October 31, you’re going to see a lot of banks wanting to pick up market share and pick up really good risk profiles, because it helps their averages out.”

Sims therefore advises clients to use this competitiveness to their advantage. “I’m telling clients to call their bank and say, ‘I’m working with a broker, I’m actively shopping, give me the best possible deal you can; you get one opportunity,’” he says.

The best options for borrowers right now

With the market shifting every few weeks and little clarity on its longer-term direction, experts advise borrowers to base decisions on their own risk profiles.

“I prefer the variable, and the only reason is because I have a free option to lock in at any point in time should I want to do that,” Sims says. “If I see that inflation is not letting down and I need to lock in, I can do that, but if I lock in now and rates plummet, I’m facing high [prepayment] penalties.”

The variable option, Sims adds, could offer more flexibility if Canadians face widespread job losses or economic stress in the coming years, challenges that may be tougher under a fixed mortgage.

However, Robert McLister, a mortgage strategist at MortgageLogic.news, cautions that only those prepared to monitor the markets closely and act quickly should consider a variable rate in today’s environment.

“Unless you’re bulletproof financially and need shorter-term penalty flexibility, go easy on variables,” he advises. “If you model out their performance using today’s rates and forward rate projections, their performance edge is limited for most people. Add in the real dangers of inflation and Ottawa’s fiscal mismanagement, and their appeal shrinks further.”

Instead, McLister recommends a fixed-rate mortgage of three or five years for most, or a hybrid option for those with a little bit more appetite for risk.

“Get a sufficiently long rate hold if you’re home shopping or refinancing,” he adds. “The point is: don’t bet the ranch on much more [interest rate] relief from here.”

Written by Jared Lindzon

for Canadian Mortgage Trends

Can I use cryptocurrency to buy a home in Canada?

General Kim Franz 18 Aug

From tax implications to AML compliance, here’s what borrowers need to know before turning digital wealth into a mortgage.

Crypto mortgages are becoming a hot topic in Canada, but there’s still a lot of confusion around how they work. For Canadians with significant holdings in Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other digital assets, the idea of using that wealth toward homeownership is appealing. However, turning crypto into a viable down payment, or leveraging it as collateral, isn’t as simple as it sounds. Between tax implications, lender skepticism, and regulatory requirements, the path from digital wallet to mortgage approval requires careful planning and documentation.

Case studies: when crypto becomes a mortgage down payment

1) Recently, Brian Hogben of Mission 35 Mortgages worked with a client who had already converted cryptocurrency into Canadian dollars. The funds had been sitting in a bank account for over 90 days, typically enough to meet lender documentation standards.

The challenge was finding a lender, and more importantly, an underwriter, who understood crypto. Several major banks refused to proceed, despite the funds being seasoned and in fiat. Progress finally came through Bank of Montreal, which Brian explained has a specialized underwriting team familiar with crypto-related transactions.

After tracing the fund origins and confirming they were compliant with anti-money laundering (AML) standards, BMO approved the mortgage. It was a breakthrough, but it also highlighted how new and misunderstood crypto remains in the mortgage space.

2) A few years ago we ran into the exact same thing with clients purchasing a home in the Greater Toronto Area. They found us only one week before their closing date as their bank had withdrawn their mortgage approval. The reason was because the down payment was largely coming from digital wallets containing their crypto funds.

The only available solution was a private first mortgage, which we placed with Vault Mortgages. Everything went well, in spite of the tight timeline, and the buyers avoided losing their $250,000 deposit.

Interestingly, when they wanted to refinance within six months, they ran into the exact same problem. The banks still wanted to verify their down payment for the original purchase.

What is a crypto mortgage and how does it work?

Crypto mortgages typically fall into one of two categories:

  • Crypto-funded mortgage: You sell your crypto, convert it to Canadian dollars, and use those funds as your down payment. This is more common but comes with tax consequences.
  • Crypto-backed mortgage: You pledge your crypto as collateral without selling it. This may help you avoid triggering capital gains tax, but requires a lender capable of assessing and managing that risk.

How crypto-collateralized loans work

If you want to access liquidity without selling your crypto, a crypto-backed loan is another option. Here’s how it works:

  1. Deposit crypto as collateral

You transfer your crypto to a platform, where it is held in a secure wallet or smart contract. Platforms such as YouHodler and Ledn support this model.

  1. Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio

You can typically borrow between 30% and 70% of your crypto’s value. For example, pledging $10,000 worth of Bitcoin may get you a $5,000 loan.

  1. Disbursement

Loans are issued in fiat (e.g., CAD, USD) or stablecoins. Most do not require a credit check and can be approved quickly.

  1. Repayment and interest

Terms vary. Some platforms offer flexible repayment options; others require fixed schedules. Once the loan and interest are repaid, your crypto is returned.

  1. Liquidation risk

If the value of your crypto drops and your LTV exceeds a certain threshold, you may be required to add collateral. Otherwise, your crypto may be liquidated.

  1. No taxable event

Since you are borrowing, not selling, there is no capital gains tax event. This can be beneficial from a tax-planning perspective.

A simpler, safer alternative: using crypto ETFs for mortgage planning

For a more straightforward path, consider using crypto ETFs instead of direct crypto holdings. ETFs allow you to gain exposure to digital assets without managing wallets, keys, or exchange accounts.

Held through mainstream brokerages, including in TFSAs and RRSPs, crypto ETFs are easier for lenders to understand and verify, avoiding the friction that often comes with direct crypto assets.

Leading crypto ETFs in Canada

These are some of the top crypto ETFs available to Canadian investors:

  • BTCC (Purpose Bitcoin ETF): The first Canadian Bitcoin ETF, with CAD and USD options and a carbon-neutral version
  • BTCQ (3iQ CoinShares Bitcoin ETF): Physically-backed BTC, held in cold storage
  • FBTC (Fidelity Advantage Bitcoin ETF): Designed for registered accounts
  • ETHH and ETHX (Purpose and CI Galaxy Ethereum ETFs): Offer direct ETH exposure, with or without staking
  • IBIT (iShares Bitcoin ETF): Managed by BlackRock, a major global asset manager

Several ETFs now include additional exposure to AI stocks or newer crypto assets like Solana, expanding diversification options within this space.

Naturally, our readers should NOT assume this to be investment advice. Ask your licensed financial adviser for their opinion before proceeding please.

Can I use crypto as a down payment?

Yes, but there are strict conditions:

  • You must convert the crypto to Canadian dollars
  • Maintain a documented paper trail of the sale and deposit
  • Be prepared to explain the origin of your funds for AML compliance

Many lenders will still be hesitant. Working with a mortgage professional familiar with these requirements and a lender that understands crypto is essential.

Is it legal and safe in Canada?

Yes, but regulatory guidance is evolving. Lenders must comply with OSFI and FINTRAC standards, which include thorough AML and source-of-funds verification.

OSFI is expected to implement new digital asset rules in 2025, which may influence how Canadian financial institutions handle crypto-collateralized products.

Key risks to consider

  • Price volatility: A drop in crypto value can lead to margin calls or liquidation
  • Lender restrictions: Many banks still reject crypto-related funds
  • Platform risk: Some crypto lenders have gone bankrupt
  • No deposit insurance: Crypto held as collateral is not insured by CDIC
  • Compliance complexity: Documentation, tax reporting, and regulatory scrutiny can be significant

Who offers crypto-backed loans?

The following platforms offer crypto-backed lending services:

  • Ledn (Canada-based)
  • APX Lending (Canada-focused)
  • Binance
  • Coinbase
  • Crypto.com
  • YouHodler
  • SALT Lending
  • Aave and Compound (DeFi protocols)

For Canadians, I am told Ledn and APX Lending provide the most relevant regulatory alignment.

How does CRA treat crypto in mortgage scenarios?

Under CRA guidelines, cryptocurrency is treated as a commodity. Selling it to fund a down payment is a taxable event, and any capital gains must be reported.

However, borrowing against your crypto is not a disposition and does not trigger capital gains taxes, at least under current rules. Regardless, thorough documentation is critical.

Our advice

Crypto-backed mortgages and crypto-collateralized loans offer new possibilities, but they’re not ideal for everyone. If you’re a crypto holder considering homeownership in Canada:

  • Convert your crypto to Canadian dollars early, and let it season for at least 90 days
  • Alternatively, accumulate your crypto wealth in Exchange Traded Funds
  • Document everything: sales, transfers, deposits, and sources of funds
  • Work with professionals who understand both traditional lending and crypto
  • Be ready to meet rigorous compliance and verification requirements

Canada’s mortgage landscape is still catching up to the digital asset world. Planning ahead is key to avoiding delays or declined applications.

 

Written by Ross Taylor

Mortgage Strategies